霍金：人工智能是福是祸？

以下为文字实录：

Over my lifetime， I have seen very significant societal changes. Probably one of the most significant， and one that is increasingly concerning people today， is the rise of artificial intelligence. In short， I believe that the rise of powerful AI， will be either the best thing， or the worst， ever to happen to humanity.I have to say now， that we do not yet know which. But we should do all we can， to ensure that its future development benefits us， and our environment. We have no other option. I see the development of AI， as a trend with its own problems that we know must be dealt with， now and into the future。

在我的一生中，我见证了社会深刻的变化。其中最深刻的，同时也是对人类影响与日俱增的变化，是人工智能的崛起。简单来说，我认为强大的人工智能的崛起，要么是人类历史上最好的事，要么是最糟的。我不得不说，是好是坏我们仍不确定。但我们应该竭尽所能，确保其未来发展对我们和我们的环境有利。我们别无选择。我认为人工智能的发展，本身是一种存在着问题的趋势，而这些问题必须在现在和将来得到解决。

The progress in AI research and development is swift. And perhaps we should all stop for a moment， and focus our research， not only on making AI more capable， but on maximizing its societal benefit. Such considerations motivated the American Association for Artificial Intelligence's， two thousand and eight to two thousand and nine， Presidential Panel on Long-Term AI Futures， which up to recently had focused largely on techniques， that are neutral with respect to purpose. But our AI systems must do what we want them to do. Inter-disciplinary research can be a way forward: ranging from economics， law， and philosophy， to computer security， formal methods， and of course various branches of AI itself。

人工智能的研究与开发正在迅速推进。也许我们所有人都应该暂停片刻，把我们的研究重复从提升人工智能能力转移到最大化人工智能的社会效益上面。基于这样的考虑，美国人工智能协会(AAAI)于2008至2009年，成立了人工智能长期未来总筹论坛，他们近期在目的导向的中性技术上投入了大量的关注。但我们的人工智能系统须要按照我们的意志工作。跨学科研究是一种可能的前进道路：从经济、法律、哲学延伸至计算机安全、形式化方法，当然还有人工智能本身的各个分支。

Everything that civilization has to offer， is a product of human intelligence， and I believe there is no real difference between what can be achieved by a biological brain， and what can be achieved by a computer.It therefore follows that computers can， in theory， emulate human intelligence， and exceed it. But we don’t know. So we cannot know if we will be infinitely helped by AI， or ignored by it and side-lined， or conceivably destroyed by it. Indeed， we have concerns that clever machines will be capable of undertaking work currently done by humans， and swiftly destroy millions of jobs。

文明所提产生的一切都是人类智能的产物，我相信生物大脑可以达到的和计算机可以达到的，没有本质区别。因此，它遵循了“计算机在理论上可以模仿人类智能，然后超越”这一原则。但我们并不确定，所以我们无法知道我们将无限地得到人工智能的帮助，还是被藐视并被边缘化，或者很可能被它毁灭。的确，我们担心聪明的机器将能够代替人类正在从事的工作，并迅速地消灭数以百万计的工作岗位。

While primitive forms of artificial intelligence developed so far， have proved very useful， I fear the consequences of creating something that can match or surpass humans. AI would take off on its own， and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate. Humans， who are limited by slow biological evolution， couldn't compete， and would be superseded. It will bring great disruption to our economy. And in the future， AI could develop a will of its own， a will that is in conflict with ours. Although I am well-known as an optimist regarding the human race， others believe that humans can command the rate of technology for a decently long time， and that the potential of AI to solve many of the world's problems will be realised. I am not so sure。

在人工智能从原始形态不断发展，并被证明非常有用的同时，我也在担忧创造一个可以等同或超越人类的事物所导致的结果：人工智能一旦脱离束缚，以不断加速的状态重新设计自身。人类由于受到漫长的生物进化的限制，无法与之竞争，将被取代。这将给我们的经济带来极大的破坏。未来，人工智能可以发展出自我意志，一个与我们冲突的意志。尽管我对人类一贯持有乐观的态度，但其他人认为，人类可以在相当长的时间里控制技术的发展，这样我们就能看到人工智能可以解决世界上大部分问题的潜力。但我并不确定。

In January 2015， I， along with the technological entrepreneur， Elon Musk， and many other AI experts， signed an open letter on artificial intelligence， calling for serious research on its impact on society. In the past， Elon Musk has warned that super human artificial intelligence， is possible of providing incalculable benefits， but if deployed incautiously， will have an adverse effect on the human race. He and I， sit on the scientific advisory board for the Future of Life Institute， an organization working to mitigate existential risks facing humanity， and which drafted the open letter. This called for concrete research on how we could prevent potential problems， while also reaping the potential benefits AI offers us， and is designed to get AI researchers and developers to pay more attention to AI safety. In addition， for policymakers and the general public， the letter is meant to be informative， but not alarmist. We think it is very important， that everybody knows that AI researchers are seriously thinking about these concerns and ethical issues. For example， AI has the potential to eradicate disease and poverty， but researchers must work to create AI that can be controlled. The four-paragraph letter， titled Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence， an Open Letter， lays out detailed research priorities in the accompanying twelve-page document。

2015年1月份，我和科技企业家埃隆·马斯克，以及许多其他的人工智能专家签署了一份关于人工智能的公开信，目的是提倡就人工智能对社会所造成的影响做认真的调研。在这之前，埃隆·马斯克就警告过人们：超人类人工智能可能带来不可估量的利益，但是如果部署不当，则可能给人类带来相反的效果。我和他同在“生命未来研究所”的科学顾问委员会，这是一个为了缓解人类所面临的存在风险的组织，而且之前提到的公开信也是由这个组织起草的。这个公开信号召展开可以阻止潜在问题的直接研究，同时也收获人工智能带给我们的潜在利益，同时致力于让人工智能的研发人员更关注人工智能安全。此外，对于决策者和普通大众来说，这封公开信内容翔实，并非危言耸听。人人都知道人工智能研究人员们在认真思索这些担心和伦理问题，我们认为这一点非常重要。比如，人工智能是有根除疾患和贫困的潜力的，但是研究人员必须能够创造出可控的人工智能。那封只有四段文字，题目为《应优先研究强大而有益的人工智能》的公开信，在其附带的十二页文件中对研究的优先次序作了详细的安排。

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